Condition Handicappers may use "Negative Handicapping" as a complete method of selecting horses. The object of Negative Handicapping is to eliminate any horse from the race which has any of the following 18 Negative Factors. If all horses are eliminated by the use of this step, you will end up with a pass race. If you have only one horse remaining it becomes our play. If you have more than one horse remaining it must be separated by whatever source you elect. However, it is the opinion of the Professional Handicappers Association that after the completion of this section, you should apply the next section "Speed/Class Key Race Handicapping" to the remaining horses. Remember, once a horse has one negative factor eliminate it from the race and move on to another horse.
A) Eliminate any horse not in the low 6 odds (See Today's Odds In Glossary) in a field of 10 or more. B) Eliminate any horse not in the low 5 odds (See Today's Odds) in a field of 9 or less. C) Eliminate all horses remaining after steps A and B that are going off at odds of 15-1 or more.
If today's jockey has ridden the horse in the past to a good race (See Good Race) he automatically becomes eligible to ride in this race. If today's jockey has not ridden the horse to a good race in his past performances then he/she will be treated as follows.
Eliminate any horse that is being ridden by a jockey that is not listed in the top 10 jockey standings unless the jockey is a well known good jockey or a jockey that has recently been riding winning mounts. Also keep in any horse that has a hot apprentice or a top jockey from another area. Also keep in if this is the horse's only negative.
If in doubt about a jockey, keep in for further consideration and apply remaining steps.
This rule does not apply to Maiden races or to horses that are racing for the first time at a track in their last race. It does not apply to a horse whose last race was it's first or second start. Or to any horse that was moved up 2 class levels or more in the last race. If none of the above apply, then eliminate any horse that went off at odds of 25-1 or higher in the last race. Also eliminate any horse that went off at odds of 11-1 or higher that did not finish the race in less than 9 lengths behind the winner. This rule applies to only the last race out.
This rule does not apply to Maiden races or to horses that are moved up 2 class levels or more in their last race. Or to any horse that had trouble in the last race that definitely impaired it's running style. Also, it does not apply to a horse whose last race was it's first or second start. If none of the above apply, then eliminate any horse that finished 20 lengths or more lengths out. Also eliminate any horse that finished 11 or more lengths out that did no go off to odds of less than 5-1 in the same race. This rule applies to only the last race out.
Eliminate any horse that does not have a Good Call (See Good Call in Glossary) unless the horse was running at 2 class levels higher than today's race in both of the last 2 races. Also eliminate any horse that in the last race the comments read - stopped, pulled up, returned sore or any comment that tells you that the horse returned from the race physically unfit.
This rule does not apply to Maiden or to any 2 year olds at any time or 3 year olds in the first four months of the year. If none of the above apply, then a horse must have in his past run either first or second or within 3 lengths of a distance similar to today's distance. Similar means within 1 furlong. If the horse does not qualify, eliminate him.
If the horse does not qualify for distance then eliminate him from the race. A word of caution, if the horse to be eliminated is a wire to wire (early speed horse) he may be able to do just that - wire the field and steal the race. So you may want to keep him in as a save horse, if he is the only early speed in the race. However, most horses with a racing history do very poorly stretching out for the first time.
This rule does not apply to exceptional horse or recent consistent horses against a weak field. Eliminate any horse that is 7 years or older unless he had a good race (See Good Race) in his last out with a win in one of his last four races. A word of caution - if an older horse qualifies as stated above and becomes your play, remember before you invest your money that he is an older horse. And old horses do have a way of showing their age if tested and are therefore, not the best to rely on.
This rule does not apply to four olds or older horses. Eliminate any horse that has not run a good race (See Good Race) on the same type of surface as today's race - dirt going to turf or vice versa.
This rule does not apply to any horse that has an Excuse (See Excuses) or any horse that was on the lead at the stretch and finished within 2 lengths in his last out. Eliminate any horse losing more than 2 lengths between stretch and finish in his last race out.
This rule does not apply to any horse that has an Excuse (See Excuses) or to any horse that was on the lead at the stretch and finished at least 3rd within 2 lengths. Eliminate any horse losing more than 1 position from stretch call to finish in his last race out.
This rule does not apply to any horse that has an Excuse (See Excuses). Eliminate any horse that in his last out did not finish at least:
4th in a field of 7 5th in a field of 8 or 9 6th in a field of 10 of more
This rule does not apply to any horse that has an Excuse (See Excuses). Eliminate any horse that does not have a Good Race. (See Good Race).
Eliminate any horse that is dropping 3 class levels (See Class Rate) or more from his last race out providing he had a Good Race (See Good Race) at the same class level or higher in his past.
Also eliminate any horse dropping in class, even 1 class level unless he is the low 4 odds (See Today's Odds) and has a good race at the class level (See Good Race), had a good race in three (See Good Race in Three) and has an In Form Factor (See In Form Factors).
To understand this step more completely, if you are doing your work at the track and the horse is dropping class and he is not in the low 4 odds he is automatically eliminated. If you are doing your work at home, he must have all 3 of the above factors - Good Race Class Level, Good Race in Three and an In Form Factor. If not he is to be eliminated from the race. If not eliminated he must still be in the low 4 odds at the track.
Eliminate any horse with Declining Form (See Declining Form) in his last race unless he is in the low 4 odds at the track (See Today's Odds) and has a Good Race at the Class Level (See Good Race Class), has a Good Race in Three (See Good Race in Three) and has an In Form Factor (See In Form Factors) and is running back at the same class level as today's race or dropping from his last race (See Same Class). The same rule applies as in Step 13 for doing your work at the track or at home.
Eliminate any horse without an In Form Factor (See In Form Factors) unless he is in the low 4 odds (See Today's Odds) and has a Good Race at the Class Level (See Good Race Class), has a Good Race in Three (See Good Race in Three) and not going up in class today (See Same Class). The same rules apply as in Step 13 for doing your work at the track or at home.
Exception: Do not apply this rule if the horse had trouble (See Excuses) in his last race. Also do not apply this rule if the horse is dropping 2 class levels or more today, providing he has not run a Good Race at that class level or higher in his past. Both excuses apply to any other steps requiring an In Form Factor.
Eliminate any horse without a Good Race in Three (See Good Race in Three) unless he is in the low 4 odds (See Today's Odds) and has a Good Race at the Class Level (See Good Race Class), has an In Form Factor (See In Form Factors) and is not going up in class today from his last out (See Same Class). The same rule apply as in Step 13 for doing your work at the track or at home.
A horse with no wins in one of his last 10 races or more is to be eliminated from the race, unless he falls under one of these 2 categories.
1. He has never raced at the class level that he is racing today.
2. He must have a rest of 30 days or more in one of his last 3 races.
However, in order to be kept in the race he must comply with the same rules that apply to non-winners of 6 that follows.
Eliminate any horse without a win in one of his last 6 starts unless he is in the low 4 odds (See Today's Odds) and has a good race at the Class Level (See Good Race Class Level), has a Good Race in Three (See Good Race In Three), has an In Form Factor (See In Form Factors) and is not going up in class today from his last out. (See Same Class). The same rules apply as in Step 13 for doing your work at the track or at home.
Eliminate any horse that has not races in 35 days or more, unless the favorite. Also eliminate any horse that has not raced from 16 days to 35 days unless he is in the low 4 odds and has a Good Race in Three (See Good Race in Three) and has an In Form Factor (See In Form Factors). The same rules apply as in Step 13 for doing your work at the track or at home.
This completes the NEGATIVE HANDICAPPING. In many cases, you will only have one horse remaining. When this happens, he is your horse to play. NEGATIVE HANDICAPPING may be used as a complete handicapping method. However, if you have a few horses remaining it is advisable to now apply SPEED/CLASS KEY RACE HANDICAPPING to these remaining horses.
Please study our GLOSSARY to understand the terminology being used in NEGATIVE HANDICAPPING and totally familiarize yourself with all 18 steps. It takes only one of the 18 steps to eliminate a horse from a race and most will be eliminated from Steps 1 through 10. Once you understand all the factors used in NEGATIVE HANDICAPPING, you will be able to handicap a complete race in a very short period of time between races. Now let's move on to SPEED/CLASS KEY RACE HANDICAPPING.
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