Speed or Class Handicappers may use this chapter as a complete method. To do such, just eliminate the work in NEGATIVE HANDICAPPING and apply the following procedure to all horse in the race. However, it is the opinion of the Professional Handicappers Association that this chapter should be applied only to the horses remaining after NEGATIVE HANDICAPPING.
This chapter starts off with adjusting the speed rate (Using Best Ratings) of the last two races on each horse remaining in the race. While writing down the speed rating it is advisable to also write down the class rating of each race at the same time. At this point you are going to apply your Excuses (See Excuses) on the last two races.
If a horse does not have an Excuse in both of the last two races, then we only look to the two speed ratings that we have written down to find our key race. The key race becomes the highest speed rating of the two that you have written down. Preferable, take this time from a fast track and at a distance that is comparable to today's - ie. sprint to sprint and route to route.
In the event that your key race is the second race back, look to see if the horse is dropping speed (4 points or more) from his second back to his last. If he is dropping speed, we now eliminate him from the race unless he had an excuse (See Excuses) in his last race or if his second race back was at a distance of 1 furlong or more different than his last.
Remember, the above procedure is to be applied to horses that did not have an excuse (See Excuses) in both of the last two races.
Now let's take a look at a horse that has an excuse (See Excuses) in both of the last two races. When the above occurs you are being given permission to look to the third race back for a speed rating (remember to write the class rating down at the same time.)
At one point we again look to our excuses to see if the horse had one in his third race back. If he did not have an excuse, then the highest speed rate of the last three races becomes the key race. However, if there had been an excuse in the third race back you again would be receiving permission to look back to the fourth race for a speed rating and if there was no excuse in the fourth race for a speed rating and if there was no excuse then the highest speed rating of the four that you had written would be the key race.
This key race procedure is very simple. If a horse has an excuse in both of the last two races, you have permission to look back for a higher speed rating and you may keep looking back as long as each race that you look at has an excuse. Once you come upon a race with no excuse, you stop going back in the horse's history and use the highest speed rating of the all the races that you have written down. Again, let me state that it is preferable to use the highest rating from a fast track and at a comparable distance. Remember, all speed ratings recommended are through the use of the Professional Handicappers Association's Best Ratings.
Now, that we have established the key race in speed, write that speed rating down in bold numbers so that we may compare with ease one horse's speed ability with that of the others still remaining in the race.
Let's now look back to the highest speed rating of all the remaining horses and compare it to each other. Any horse that is not within 3 speed points to the highest one, is to be eliminated from the race. If there is only one horse remaining, then this horse becomes your play. In the event there is more than one horse remaining, we now have to find a Key race (Class) on the remaining contenders.
It has been suggested that each time a speed rating was written down for a race that a class rating was also written down. (See Class Rating). This step was only suggested to save you time.
Key race (Class) is found much the same way as Key Race (Speed). We apply the same excuses (See excuses) to each race except that we treat any race that a horse won or ran within a nose, neck or head as an excuse and we adjust the class rating of the key race by the number of lengths that a horse ran behind the winner using the following class conversion formula.
1/4 LENGTH TO 5 LENGTHS PENALIZE CLASS RATING 1 POINT 5 1/4 LENGTHS TO 9 LENGTHS PENALIZE CLASS RATING 2 POINTS. 9 1/4 LENGTHS TO 14 LENGTHS PENALIZE CLASS RATING 3 POINTS. 14 1/4 LENGTHS OR MORE PENALIZE CLASS RATING 4 POINTS.
So if we are looking at a class rating of 12 in a particular race and the horse in question was 3 lengths behind the winner, we would convert the 12 class rating to a 13 by penalizing the horse 1 class point or rating. (1/4 length to 5 lengths penalize the class rating by 1 point.)
Now let's find the Key Race (Class) by reviewing a horse's history. If in the last race run by a horse he did not have an excuse (See Excuses) or he did not win the race or run within a nose, neck or head then this last race would become his class rating by using the above class conversion formula. Now let's assume that a horse in his last race out had an excuse. Well, we again are given permission to look to a second race back and if the horse did not win or run within a nose, neck or head (from this point to be referred to as a class excuse, then we would take the highest class rating of the two to become our Key Race (Class).
Like the Key Race (speed) the Key Race (class) is found with the help of excuses and a class excuse. Each time you find a race with an excuse you are given permission to look to the next race back. The key race (Class) becomes the best class rating that you have encountered with the help of your excuses and class excuses.
A word of caution, however, should be applied when looking at a horse's Key Race (Class) that has been taken from an adjustment of 2 to 4 class conversion levels. If this is the horses best class rating, it would become suspect and I would be leery about putting this horses as my main contender.
Now, just as you have done with your top speed rating, do the same with your Key Race (Class) rating. Write it down in bold just so that you may compare one class rating to that of the other remaining horses.
Now eliminate from the race all horses but the top two Class horses (the two with the lowest class numbers.) In the event of a tie, keep in more than two.
At this point, you separate the remaining horses in the following manner.
Any horse that is 3 speed rating higher with the same class rating or better is eligible to be played. Any horse that 1 class rating better with 2 speed ratings better is eligible to be played. Any horse with 2 or more class ratings better is eligible to be played.
Any other circumstances that arise should be considered a Pass race or a multiple wagering race (more than 1 horse to win.)
Apply "TOTAL CONTROLLED INVESTING" before making an investment at the track
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