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Professional HandicappersPROFESSIONAL HANDICAPPERS ASSOCIATION'S
PROFESSIONAL HANDICAPPERS ASSOCIATION'S
STATISTICAL STUDY
The following information is the result of a study of 26710 starters which represents 3388 winners/races. This Study will give you an insight into some positive and negative factors in horseracing.
The study was broken down into many different categories related to racing which we will call characteristics. The purpose was to determine which factors we feel are positive and which are negative.
To do this we came up with an Impact Value which is a statistical approach to probability. This puts the end to the nonsense of assuming that the percentage of races won by horses with a given characteristic can be used as a guide post to anything but losing. This kind of a figure is supplemented with the percentage of starters which contains this characteristic. When we divide the percentage of winners by the percentage of starters we get an Impact Value. This value determines what share of races the particular characteristic wins.
If the characteristic has an Impact Value of 1.00, it means that this category has won no more and no less than it's fair share of races or is par. Therefore, an Impact Value (I.V.) of under 1.00 is a negative value and greater is a positive value. The greater the Impact Value number over 1.00 the more powerful it is. The more the Impact Value is under 1.00 the more negative the factor is.
The study has been taken using a Trainer Study for Southern California races.
SPRINTS TO ROUTES
There were 2974 horses who ran in a sprint race their last race and a route in their next race out. They resulted in only 358 winners which represents only 12 % of the starters in this group. However, the 358 winners did represent 22% of the total route winners/races.
The Impact Value of this factor is only a .85 with 1.00 being par. Thus .85 is a NEGATIVE characteristic.
ROUTES TO SPRINTS
There were 2325 horses who ran a route race in their last race and a sprint in their next race out. They resulted in only 224 winners which represents only 10 % of the starters in this group. However, the 224 winners did represent 13 % of the total sprint winners.
The Impact Value of this factor is only a .83 and again is an UNFAVORABLE figure from par.
STARTERS WINNERS How Many Percent How Many Percent I.V. Sprints to Routes 2974 26 358 22 .85 Routes to Sprints 2325 15 224 12.5 .83
GRASS TO DIRT
There were 1119 starters that attempted to switch from Grass to Dirt with only 117 being able to accomplish it. This represents 10 % of those that started in this group. However, the 117 winners did represent only 4 % of the total winners.
The Impact Value of this group is .83 which is a NEGATIVE factor and below par.
DIRT TO GRASS
There were 1142 starters that attempted to switch from Dirt to Grass their last start. This represented 33 % of those that started in this group. However, the 118 winners did represent 13 % of the total grass winners.
The Impact Value is .40 which is NEGATIVE and way below par and is definitely not winning it's fair share of races.
STARTERS WINNERS How Many Percent How Many Percent I.V. Grass to Dirt 1119 4.8 117 4 .83 Dirt to Grass 1142 33 118 13.3 .40
CLASS
UP 1 CLASS LEVEL
There were 2745 starters that went up 1 class level from it's last out. This resulted in 348 winners and this represented 13 % of those that started in this group. However, the 348 winners did represent 10 % of the total of all winners/races.
The Impact Value for this factor is 1.00, which actually means any horse that is going up 1 class level IS WINNING it's fair share of races.
UP 2 CLASS LEVELS
There were 173 starters that went up 2 or more class levels from it's last out. This resulted in 17 winners which represented 10 % of their starters in their group. However, the 17 winners did represent 1/2 % of all winners.
The Impact Value is .83 which means this factor DOES NOT win it's fair share.
SAME CLASS
This is an interesting category. Horses returning to the same class as their previous race actually are a poor proposition. In this study, we found 7083 starters which resulted in 822 winners. The winners represented 24 % of all the winners.
The Impact Value though was only .91 which means it still DID NOT WIN it's fair share of races.
DROPPING 1 CLASS LEVEL
There were 3940 starters that dropped 1 class level from their last race. This resulted in 551 winners which represented 14 % of those that started in this group. However, the winners represented 16 % of all winners.
The Impact Value for this value is 1.07. This means that horses dropping 1 class level DO WIN their fair share of races.
DROPPING 2 CLASS LEVELS OR MORE
There were 588 starters that dropped 2 class levels or more from it's last start. 98 of these won which represents 17 % of those that started in this group. The 98 winners did represent 3 % of all the winners.
STARTERS WINNERS How Many Percent How Many Percent I.V. Up 1 Class Level 2745 10.3 348 10.3 1.00 Up 2 Class Levels 173 .6 17 .5 .83 Same Class 7083 26.5 822 24.1 .91 Drop 1 Class Level 3940 15 551 16 1.07 Drop 2 Class Levels 558 2.1 98 2.9 1.38
CLAIMER TO NON-CLAIMER
We next look at the starters who ran in a claiming race last out who are going to a non-claiming race. This resulted in 1161 starters and of those there were 114 winners which represented 10 % of that started in this group. The overall picture in this group came up with an Impact Value of .69 which is VERY WEAK.
NON-CLAIMER TO CLAIMING RACE
Next we looked at non-claimers (Allowance, Handicap or Stakes) coming to a claiming race. This top proved to be a weak category. There were 1732 starters with only 184 winners which represented 11 % of those that started in this group.
The Impact Value of this category is .69 which is under par. Therefore, this is also WEAK.
STARTERS WINNERS How Many Percent How Many Percent I.V. Claimer to Non-Claimer 6723 17.3 114 11.9 .69 Non-Claimer to Claimer 1732 9.8 184 8.7 .89
SHIPPERS
Shippers was another interesting category, because we only looked at starters that were shipping to racetracks outside of their own circuit. We found 3879 starters and 549 winners in this category. This represented 14 % of those that started in this category.
The IMPACT VALUE was GOOD for this category. They won more than their fair share of races. In fact, it was 1.10.
FINISH OF RACE
WINNING 2 RACES IN A ROW
We looked at 2471 starters who won their last race out and much to our amazement, we found 475 winners which meant that this group was definitely WINNING MORE than it's fair share.
In fact, the Impact Value was 1.5. The overall picture was that they won 19 % of their starters of all the total winners.
FINISH 2ND OR 3RD IN LAST RACE
This was another strong group. There were 6043 starters which turned in 1076 winners. In fact, 18 % of their starters won and they represented 33 % of all the winners and had a VERY POWERFUL Impact Value of 1.40
IN THE MONEY LAST OUT
We combined the previous 2 categories and here's what happened. There were 8784 starters that were in the money their last race and they turned in a whopping 1551 winners which was 18 % of those that started in this group. This represented 48 % of all total winners.
The Impact Value was 1.38. Again, this factor is VERY POWERFUL.
FINISH 4TH OR WORSE
There were 14930 starters that finished 4th or worse in their last race. This resulted in 1514 winners which represents 10 % of those that started in this group. However, the winners did represent 47 % of all the winners.
But the Impact Value for this category is .80 which is below par and is therefore WEAK.
STARTERS WINNERS How Many Percent How Many Percent I.V. 1st last out 2471 9.8 475 14.7 1.50 2nd or 3rd last out 6043 23.8 1076 33 1.40 1st, 2nd or 3rd 8784 34.7 1551 48 1.38 4th or worse 14930 59 1514 47 .80
2ND LIFETIME START
There were 1122 starters that were running in their 2nd lifetime start. This resulted in 123 winners which represents 11 % of those that started in this group. However, the winners did represent less than 4 % of all winners.
The Impact Value for this category is .90 which is not quite par. Therefore, this is a negative factor.
FIRST RACE ON GRASS
There were 723 starters that ran the first time on the Grass. This resulted in only 64 winners which represents 9 % of those that started in this group. However, the 64 winners represent only 7 % of all the winners.
The Impact Value was very poor. It was only a .34 which speaks VERY NEGATIVELY for this category.
2ND RACE ON THE GRASS
We took the previous category one step further to see how well the horses did in their 2nd race ever on the grass. It wasn't much better.
There were 491 starters with 58 winners which represented 12 % of the starters in the category and only 7 % of the total winners on the grass.
The Impact Value only improved a few percentage points which still remained POOR with a .46.
STARTERS WINNERS How Many Percent How Many Percent I.V. 1st Race on the Grass 723 20.9 64 7.2 .34 2nd Race on the Grass 491 14.2 58 6.6 .46
1ST RACE EVER IN A CLAIMING RACE
This category represents starters that are racing their first start in their lifetime for a claiming price. The category turned up a VERY POOR performance record with an Impact Value of only .62. There were actually 1923 starters which won only 144 races. This represents only 8 % of the total starters in this category.
The winners only represented only 7 % of the total winners in a claiming price.
1ST RACE AFTER BEING CLAIMED
Looking at the study we found 966 horses that were claimed in their last race out. 137 of them came back winning which gave us a POSITIVE Impact Value of 1.16.
Against the total group of winners in the claiming category they represented 6 % of all the winners and 14 % of the number of those that started in this group.
2ND RACE AFTER BEING CLAIMED
We took the previous category one step further to see what happened in the 2nd race after being claimed. Again we came up with a POSITIVE Impact Value of 1.17.
STARTERS WINNERS How Many Percent How Many Percent I.V. 1st Race after Claim 966 5.5 137 6.5 1.16 2nd Race after Claim 825 4.7 116 5.5 1.17
DAYS AWAY FROM RACES
We asked 24297 starters which made up 3171 winners/races - How many days away from the races?
Here are the findings:
STARTERS WINNERS How Many Percent How Many Percent I.V. 1 - 5 Days 288 1.2 48 1.5 1.25 6 - 10 Days 3887 16 501 16 1.00 11-20 Days 10032 41.3 1377 43 1.04 21 - 30 Days 4827 19.9 637 20 1.00 31 - 60 Days 3107 12.8 371 11.7 .91 61 Days + 2156 8.8 237 7.5 .85
Categories from 1 - 5 days to 21 - 30 days all have a POSITIVE Impact Value.
31 days and longer as you can see started to NOT WIN their fair share.
An interesting note is that 81 % of all the winners in this category had a race within 30 days. 92.5 % had a race in 60 Days leaving only 7.5 % of all the winners in this study belonging to a horse that started 61 days or more from it's last race.
BEATEN FAVORITES
Beaten Favorites was looked at to see how many returned winning. We found a very POSITIVE Impact Value of 1.62.
This came about from 2144 starters which were favored in their last race and came back to win 448 times out of 3388 wins. This is a VERY FAVORABLE horse.
JOCKEYS
We took a study of jockeys and broke it into 2 categories. One was jockey changes from it's previous race and the second was apprentice jockeys.
JOCKEYS
We looked at 14035 starters with a jockey change and found that they had turned in 1694 winners. The Impact Value was close to par which was .95.
APPRENTICE JOCKEYS
The apprentice jockeys started on 2770 mounts and won only 275 which gave us an Impact Value of .79 which is NOT FAVORABLE.
The overall picture of jockeys was that with or without a change they were close to holding their own. Apprentices are still iffy.
STARTERS WINNERS How Many Percent How Many Percent I.V. Jockey Change 14035 52.5 1694 50 .95 Apprentice Jockeys 2770 10.3 275 8.1 .46
ODDS
Here we looked at 3388 winners which represented 26710 starters. The findings were conclusive that longshots don't win their fair share.
We divided this category into 3 groups. Horses that went off below 5-1 odds. Horses that went off from 5-1 to 9-1 odds and horses that went off from 10-1 and up.
BELOW 5-1 ODDS
There were 9049 horses that went off at odds of below 5-1. They made up 2258 of the winners which represented 25 % of the starters in this group. However, the 2258 winners did represent 67 % of the total of all the winners. The Impact Value is the STRONGEST IN THE STUDY - 1.97. This is an extremely favorable category.
5-1 ODDS TO 9-1 ODDS
The next grouping which was 5-1 to 9-1 odds started 6211 horses and 691 of them won. This represented 11 % of the starters in this group. However, the 691 winners did represent 20 % of the total of the winners.
The Impact Value was .89 which is NOT FAVORABLE.
But a very interesting % arises when we combine all horses that raced for 9-1 or less. We found there were 15260 starters which resulted in 2949 winners. Theses winners represented 87 % of all the winners and came up with a POSITIVE Impact Value of 1.5.
10 - 1 AND UP ODDS
The final category of 10 - 1 and up had 11450 starters and turned in 439 winners. This represented the balance of the 13 % winners and had an Impact Value of only .3 which is WAY BELOW PAR. This leaves us with the knowledge of long shots NOT WINNING their fair share of races.
STARTERS WINNERS How Many Percent How Many Percent I.V. Below 5-1 Odds 9049 34 2258 67 1.97 5-1 to 9-1 Odds 6211 23 691 20.4 .89 10-1 and Up 11450 43 439 12.8 .3
TRAINERS
We took a study of trainers. We broke it down into those that had won 9 % of their races and those that won under 9 % of their races.
The trainers that had won 9 % of their races and represented 59 % of the starters and won approximately 90 % of all races. The Impact Value was a VERY POSITIVE 1.56.
The trainers that had won less than 9 % of their wins represented 41 % of the starters and had a win percent of only 8 %. The Impact Value was VERY POOR. It was ONLY a .2.
We hope you enjoy this study.
Professional Handicappers Association