PROFESSIONAL HANDICAPPERS © Professional Handicappers 2023- www.phahorseracing.com |
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FAVORITE OR LONGSHOT? © 2023 |
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Race Examples Included are the Premium Past Performances from www.Brisnet.com for Races at Gulfstream for Sunday, February 26, 2023. The races will be explained step by step using these Past Performances and will include all the eligible races of the day that won. The Premium Past Performances from www.brisnet.com are included. You can access them from the Main Menu. No Maiden Races are handicapped with this method. Remember we are passing all Maiden Races. Race 3 - 1 Mile Claiming 12500 How to Find Your Main Contenders 1. Morning Line Odds Eliminate all horses that are 12/1 Morning Line Odds and higher. Keep in all horses that are 10/1 Morning Line Odds and lower. 1. Pipya de Linda - 20/1 2. Astroturf - 12/1 3. Chiquirin - 15/1 4. Hey Porter - 5/1 5. Sovereign of Speed - 6/1 6. Appraisal - 7/2 7. Gran Andrews - 9/2 8. Strasbourg - 12/1 9. Never Satisfied - 5/2 These are the Morning Line Odds of all the horses. Keeping in all horses that are 10/1 Morning Line Odds and lower, the following horses are remaining in the race. 4. Hey Porter - 5/1 5. Sovereign of Speed - 6/1 6. Appraisal - 7/2 7. Gran Andrews - 9/2 9. Never Satisfied - 5/2 #1, #2, #3 and #8 have Morning Line Odds of 12/1 or higher. These horses are eliminated for further consideration. We will continue handicapping with the remaining horses. 2. 3 Horses With The Highest of 2 Speed Ratings Using only the horses remaining, find the highest speed rating of the last 2 races on each remaining horse in the race. Keep in the 3 horses with the best or highest speed ratings. 4. Hey Porter - Last Race 86 - Second Race 74 5. Sovereign of Speed - Last Race 73 - Second Race 80 6. Appraisal - Last Race 77 - Second Race 81 7. Gran Andrews - Last Race 77 - Second Race 74 9. Never Satisfied - Last Race 80 - Second Race 73 The 3 horses with the best or Highest Speed Rating are #4 Hey Porter with a 86, #6 Appraisal with a 81 and #5 Sovereign of Speed with a 80. We have a tie for the 3rd spot. So #9 Never Satisfied with a 80 is also included. All of the remaining horses are eliminated from the race. #7 Gran Andrew is eliminated. We continue handicapping only these 4 horses. These are our Contenders. Handicap the Favorite very quickly using the following steps to see if the Favorite is your play. 1. Favorite Morning Line Odds The horse that we will be using as the Favorite is the lowest Morning Line Odds. Horse must be the lowest listed Morning Line Odds and less than 3/1 Morning Line Odds. The Favorite in this race is #9 Never Satisfied at 5/2. The Favorite Must also be One of Your 3 Top Speed Contenders. If the Favorite is not one of your Contenders eliminate the following Steps. In this race the Favorite #9 Never Satisfied is one of the Contenders. The Favorite now must qualify with the following factors to become the Favorite Play. As soon the favorite does not qualify with one of the factors then the favorite will be eliminated from the race. 2. Jockeys #9 Never Satisfied must have a jockey on board that won more than 4.5% of his races at the current meet. The jockey on board has a 27% Win Rate this meet. This is ok. 3. Dates The horse must have had a race in the last 240 days or 8 months. #9 Never Satisfied raced Jan. 11. This is ok. 4. Finish Position in Last Race The horse must have finished at least 9th in the last race. #9 Never Satisfied finished 1st in the last race. This is ok. 5. First Call in the Last Race Out Any Horse that is more than 9th in the first call of the last race is eliminated. #9 Never Satisfied is 3rd at the 1st Call of the last race. This is ok. 6. Big Win Last Out A Big Win is a Win by more than 7 Lengths. Eliminate any Favorite that won their last race by more than 7 lengths and is not returning to the races within 45 days. #9 Never Satisfied finished 1st in the last race by 5 1/4 lengths. This is ok. SHORTCUT TO SELECTING YOUR HORSE
If the favorite is still remaining in the race and has the highest speed rating of the two speed ratings of your Contenders then this horse will automatically be your play. No reason to go any further. We do not have to handicap the other Contenders.
#9 Never Satisfied has a Speed Rate of only 80. This is the 3rd highest speed number not the highest. Therefore #9 Never Satisfied is NOT automatically our play.
Since #9 Never Satisfied is still one of your Contenders but not the Highest Speed Rate, we will keep him in until we make our final decision. But we will not use the favorite horse in the following steps.
Now we will find our Non-Favorite Selection, using only our Contenders. In this race we will only have 3 contenders left to handicap. HOW TO HANDICAP CONTENDERS THAT ARE NOT THE FAVORITE We have already determined our Contenders. These are the only horses we will handicap. If one of our contenders does not qualify with one of these steps then this horse is eliminated. 1. Morning Line Odds The Contender must have a Morning Line Odds of more than 5-2. In other words must be at least 3-1 odds. Our contenders 3/1 Morning Line Odds and higher are 4. Hey Porter - 5/1 5. Sovereign of Speed - 6/1 6. Appraisal - 7/2 2. Finish In Last Race With the remaining horses the horse must finish in a certain position in the last race out depending on today's type of race. This is a Claiming 12500 race so the Contenders must have finished at least 5th in the last race. 4. Hey Porter - Finished 2nd 5. Sovereign of Speed - Finished 3rd 6. Appraisal - Finished 3rd. All are OK. Continue to the next step. 3. Lengths Behind in the Finish in the Last Race Out Keep any Horse in that is less than 15 Lengths behind at the finish of the race. So 15 lengths behind at the finish is NOT OK. 4. Hey Porter - 1 1/2 lengths at the finish 5. Sovereign of Speed - 7 1/4 lengths at the finish 6. Appraisal - 3 lengths at the finish Continue your Handicapping with the Remaining Horses 4. Actual Odds In Last 2 Races With the horse's remaining look at the actual odds that the horse went off at in the last 2 races. This is a Claiming 12500 race so the Contenders must have an odds number in the last 2 races of less than 10.00. Do not accept 10.00. 4. Hey Porter - 6.30 Odds is the lowest of the last 2 races. 5. Sovereign of Speed - 1.50 Odds is the lowest of the last 2 races. 6. Appraisal - 1.40 Odds is the lowest of the last 2 races. All are OK. Continue to the next step. 5. Dates The horses remaining must have had a race in the last 90 days or 3 months. 4. Hey Porter - Last Race is Jan. 26. 5. Sovereign of Speed - Last Race is Feb. 3rd . 6. Appraisal - Last Race is Dec. 21. All are OK. Continue to the next step. 6. First Call in the Last Race Out Any Horse that is more than 8th in the first call of the last race is eliminated. 4. Hey Porter - First Call is 6th. 5. Sovereign of Speed - First Call is 3rd. 6. Appraisal - First Call is 2nd. All are OK. Continue to the next step. 7. Jockey - Current Meet The Jockey of the horse must have won more than 4.5 % of their races at the current meet or if the jockey has 0 % wins (not won a race at the meet) then they must have had only 22 jockey starts at the current meet. 4. Hey Porter - Jockey is 7%. 5. Sovereign of Speed - Jockey is 12%. 6. Appraisal - Jockey is 19%. All are OK. Continue to the next step. 6. Big Win Last Out
A Big Win is a Win by more than 7 Lengths. Eliminate any Non-Favorite that won their last race by more than 7 lengths and is not returning to the races within 45 days.
None of our 3 Contenders finished 1st last race. All are OK.
FINDING OUR PLAY With our remaining horses we will separate using the Highest Speed Rating of the 2 that we used to find our Contenders. Our Win Play is the Highest Speed Rating of the Contenders. If the Favorite was not the top Speed Rated horse but was one of our original contenders, we will now put this horse back in. And if the Favorite has the highest speed rate of our remaining horses then the Favorite is our Win Play. Otherwise the Favorite is eliminated. In this race we still have our 3 Contenders plus we put the Favorite #9 Never Satisfied back in the mix since the Favorite was not eliminated. Our Speed Ratings are as follows. 4. Hey Porter - 86 5. Sovereign of Speed - 80 6. Appraisal -81 9 Never Satisfied - 80 The #4 Hey Porter has the Highest Speed of our horses and is our Win Play.
#4 Hey Porter won and paid $11.20 to Win and $5.20 to Place. Race 7 - 1 Mile and 70 Yards OClaiming 20000 How to Find Your Main Contenders 1. Morning Line Odds Eliminate all horses that are 12/1 Morning Line Odds and higher. Keep in all horses that are 10/1 Morning Line Odds and lower. 1. Telephone Talker - 20/1 2. Momza. - 8/1 3. Braccio di Ferro - 30/1 4.Souper Energizer - 6/1 5. Race Craft - 6/1 6. Bryce Canyon - 20/1 7. Conglomerate - 7/2 8. Cadet Corps - 10/1 9. Poppy's Boys- 8/1 10. Fly The W - 2/1 These are the Morning Line Odds of all the horses. Keeping in all horses that are 10/1 Morning Line Odds and lower, the following horses are remaining in the race. 2. Momza. - 8/1 4.Souper Energizer - 6/1 5. Race Craft - 6/1 7. Conglomerate - 7/2 8. Cadet Corps - 10/1 9. Poppy's Boys- 8/1 10. Fly The W - 2/1 #1, #3 and #6 have Morning Line Odds of 12/1 or higher. These horses are eliminated for further consideration. We will continue handicapping the remaining horses. 2. 3 Horses With The Highest of 2 Speed Ratings Using only the horses remaining, find the highest speed rating of the last 2 races on each remaining horse in the race. Keep in the 3 horses with the best or highest speed ratings. 2. Momza. - Last Race 88 - Second Race 86 4.Souper Energizer - Last Race 85 - Second Race 85 5. Race Craft - Last Race 79 - Second Race 89 7. Conglomerate - Last Race 87 - Second Race 88 8. Cadet Corps - Last Race 87 - Second Race 81 9. Poppy's Boys- Last Race 84 - Second Race 88 10. Fly The W - Last Race 88 - Second Race 97 The 3 horses with the best or Highest Speed Rating are #10 Fly the W with a 97, #5 Race Craft with a 89, #2 Momza with an 88 and also 2 ties #7 Conglomerate with a 88 and #9 Poppy's Boys with a 88. All of the remaining horses are eliminated from the race. #4 Souper Energizer and #8 Cadet Corps are eliminated. We continue handicapping only these 5 horses. These are our Contenders. Handicap the Favorite very quickly using the following steps to see if the Favorite is your play. 1. Favorite Morning Line Odds The horse that we will be using as the Favorite is the lowest Morning Line Odds. Horse must be the lowest listed Morning Line Odds and less than 3/1 Morning Line Odds. The Favorite in this race is #10 Fly The W at 2/1. The Favorite Must also be One of Your 3 Top Speed Contenders. If the Favorite is not one of your Contenders eliminate the following Steps. In this race the Favorite #10 Fly The W is one of the Contenders. The Favorite now must qualify with the following factors to become the Favorite Play. As soon the favorite does not qualify with one of the factors then the favorite will be eliminated from the race. 2. Jockeys #10 Fly The W must have a jockey on board that won more than 4.5% of his races at the current meet. The jockey on board has a 27% Win Rate this meet. This is ok. 3. Dates The horse must have had a race in the last 240 days or 8 months. #10 Fly The W raced Jan. 7. This is ok. 4. Finish Position in Last Race The horse must have finished at least 9th in the last race. #10 Fly The W finished 1st in the last race. This is ok. 5. First Call in the Last Race Out Any Horse that is more than 9th in the first call of the last race is eliminated. #10 Fly The W is 3rd at the 1st Call of the last race. This is ok. 6. Big Win Last Out A Big Win is a Win by more than 7 Lengths. Eliminate any Favorite that won their last race by more than 7 lengths and is not returning to the races within 45 days. #10 Fly The W finished 1st in the last race by a neck. This is ok. SHORTCUT TO SELECTING YOUR HORSE
If the favorite is still remaining in the race after the previous steps and has the highest speed rating of the two speed ratings of your Contenders then this horse will automatically be your play. No reason to go any further. We do not have to handicap the other Contenders.
#10 Fly The W has a Speed Rate of 97. This is the highest speed number of the race.. Therefore #10 Fly The W is automatically our play. That's it. Pretty quick and easy.
#10 Fly The W won and paid $4.00 to Win and $2.60 to Place. Race 10 - 5 Furlongs Claiming 12500 How to Find Your Main Contenders 1. Morning Line Odds Eliminate all horses that are 12/1 Morning Line Odds and higher. Keep in all horses that are 10/1 Morning Line Odds and lower. 1. On Jet Heir - 12/1 2. Neophyte - 4/1 3. Harry's On The Beach - 6/1 4. Banker's Hours - 9/2 5. Joyful Surprise - 30/1 6. Our Noble Ortega - 20/1 7. Villegas Swing - 3/1 8. Naval Officer - 5/2 9. Cupid's Dart - 20/1 These are the Morning Line Odds of all the horses. Keeping in all horses that are 10/1 Morning Line Odds and lower, the following horses are remaining in the race. 2. Neophyte - 4/1 3. Harry's On The Beach - 6/1 4. Banker's Hours - 9/2 7. Villegas Swing - 3/1 8. Naval Officer - 5/2 #1, #5, #6 and #9 have Morning Line Odds of 12/1 or higher. These horses are eliminated for further consideration. We will continue handicapping the remaining horses. 2. 3 Horses With The Highest of 2 Speed Ratings Using only the horses remaining, find the highest speed rating of the last 2 races on each remaining horse in the race. Keep in the 3 horses with the best or highest speed ratings. 2. Neophyte - Last Race 70 - Second Race 75 3. Harry's On The Beach - Last Race 74 - Second Race 69 4. Banker's Hours - Last Race 72 - Second Race 77 7. Villegas Swing - Last Race 70 - Second Race 71 8. Naval Officer - Last Race71 - Second Race 72 The 3 horses with the best or Highest Speed Rating are #4 Banker's Hours with a 77, #2 Neophyte with a 75 and #3 Harry's On The Beach with a 74. All of the remaining horses are eliminated from the race. #7 Villegas Swing and #8 Naval Officer are eliminated. We continue handicapping only these 3 horses. These are our Contenders. Handicap the Favorite very quickly using the following steps to see if the Favorite is your play. 1. Favorite Morning Line Odds The horse that we will be using as the Favorite is the lowest Morning Line Odds. Horse must be the lowest listed Morning Line Odds and less than 3/1 Morning Line Odds. The Favorite in this race is #8 Naval Officer at 5/2. The Favorite Must also be One of Your 3 Top Speed Contenders. If the Favorite is not one of your Contenders eliminate the following Steps. In this race the Favorite #8 Naval Officer is NOT one of the Contenders and so is eliminated. We will continue handicapping the race using our Non-Favorite Contenders to find our Selection. In this race we have 3 contenders left to handicap. HOW TO HANDICAP CONTENDERS THAT ARE NOT THE FAVORITE We have already determined our Contenders. These are the only horses we will handicap. If one of our contenders does not qualify with one of these steps then this horse is eliminated. 1. Morning Line Odds The Contender must have a Morning Line Odds of more than 5-2. In other words must be at least 3-1 odds. Our contenders 3/1 Morning Line Odds and higher are 2. Neophyte - 4/1 3. Harry's On The Beach - 6/1 4. Banker's Hours - 9/2 2. Finish In Last Race With the remaining horses the horse must finish in a certain position in the last race out depending on today's type of race. This is a Claiming 12500 race so the Contenders must have finished at least 5th in the last race. 2. Neophyte - Finished 6th 3. Harry's On The Beach - Finished 5th 4. Banker's Hours - Finished 5th All are OK. Continue to the next step. 3. Lengths Behind in the Finish in the Last Race Out Keep any Horse in that is less than 15 Lengths behind at the finish of the race. So 15 lengths behind at the finish is NOT OK 2. Neophyte - Finished 7 1/2 lengths 3. Harry's On The Beach - Finished 2 lengths 4. Banker's Hours - Finished 6/12 lengths All are OK. Continue to the next step. 4. Actual Odds In Last 2 Races With the horse's remaining look at the actual odds that the horse went off at in the last 2 races. This is a Claiming 12500 race so the Contenders must have an odds number in the last 2 races of less than 10.00. Do not accept 10.00. 2. Neophyte - 2.20 Odds is the lowest of the last 2 races 3. Harry's On The Beach - 4.20 Odds is the lowest of the last 2 races 4. Banker's Hours - 3.50 Odds is the lowest of the last 2 races All are OK. Continue to the next step. 5. Dates The horses remaining must have had a race in the last 90 days or 3 months. 2. Neophyte - Last Raced Jan 14 3. Harry's On The Beach - Last Raced Dec 24 4. Banker's Hours - Last Raced Jan 14 All are OK. Continue to the next step. 6. First Call in the Last Race Out Any Horse that is more than 8th in the first call of the last race is eliminated. 2. Neophyte -2nd at the First Call 3. Harry's On The Beach - 6th at the First Call 4. Banker's Hours - 7th at the First Call All are OK. Continue to the next step. 7. Jockey - Current Meet The Jockey of the horse must have won more than 4.5 % of their races at the current meet or if the jockey has 0 % wins (not won a race at the meet) then they must have had only 22 jockey starts or less at the current meet. 2. Neophyte - Jockey is 10% 3. Harry's On The Beach - Jockey is 19% 4. Banker's Hours - Jockey is 15% All are OK. Continue to the next step. 8. Big Win Last Out A Big Win is a Win by more than 7 Lengths. Eliminate any Non-Favorite that won their last race by more than 7 lengths and is not returning to the races within 45 days.
None of our 3 Contenders finished 1st last race. All are OK.
FINDING OUR PLAY With our remaining horses we will separate using the Highest Speed Rating of the 2 that we used to find our Contenders. Our Win Play is the Highest Speed Rating of the Contenders. In this race we still have our 3 Contenders. Our Speed Ratings are as follows. 2. Neophyte - 75 3. Harry's On The Beach - 74 4. Banker's Hours - 77 #4 Banker's Hours has the Highest Speed of our horses and is our Win Play. #4 Banker's Hours won and paid $10.60 to Win and $5.20 to Place. In all there was a total of 6 plays on February 26th, 2023 at Gulfstream of which the method brought out 3 Winners for 60% Wins and a 258% ROI. We had 2 losses and one pass race. Every day will be different of course some days better than others. You will have losing days. Any method will have losing days. But overall there has been a little over 50% Wins and a 171% ROI. Review these Race Examples. The examples should be very clear. Most of the time there are no ties. The "Favorite or Longshot?" Method" will bring you to just one horse to play in a race. You can decide if you want to play just the longer priced horses. If that is the case you will know with a very good amount of confidence what favorite will not win. The number of plays will be less but your return on investment will be higher. I am sure you will have a lot of enjoyment and success with this method. I thank you very kindly for your business. Any questions email at phahorseracing@gmail.com Professional Handicappers
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