by Professional Handicappers

 © 2023 Professional Handicappers - www.phahorseracing.com

FAVORITE OR LONGSHOT? © 2023

SHOULD THE FAVORITE WIN OR SHOULD A LONGSHOT WIN?

When is a favorite going to win. When is a longer priced horse going to win? The "Favorite or Longshot?" Method will explain when the favorite is a not a sound wager. Everyone likes long priced horses. But in certain races the favorite is a shoe in. And in other races the favorite is more often going to lose.

And after handicapping the race if the favorite is going to win it would be crazy to play another horse in the race. And then you can decide whether you want to play the low priced horse odds or pass the race.

This method though has brought out longer prices like $35.00, $20.40, $18.80, $18.60, $18.20, $18, $16.80, $15.80, $14.20 and many more.

Follow along with this method and wager with much more certainty.  This method will tell you when you can feel pretty confident about throwing the big favorite out even an odds on favorite.  So a 3/5 horse is not always going to win. With this confidence now you can find the better odds horse to win when it is the right circumstances. 

This is a step by step method. Very easy and fast. The result will be bringing you to one horse to win in the race.  As soon as a horse does not qualify with one of the steps the horse is to be eliminated.

How to Find Your Main Contenders

We are not handicapping Maidens. Eliminate all Maiden Races. We will handicap all other races. The only other exception is to pass 12.0 Furlongs or longer races.

1. Morning Line Odds

Eliminate all horses that are 12/1 Morning Line Odds and higher. Keep in all horses that are 10/1 Morning Line Odds and lower.

Example of the Morning Line in a Race

1. 6-1

2. 5/2

3. 8-1

4. 2-1

5. 10-1

6. 12-1

7. 15-1

8. 4-1

9. 5-1

In the above race example the  Morning Line Odds horses that are 10/1 or under are:

4. 2-1

2. 5/2

8. 4-1

9. 5-1

1. 6-1

3. 8-1

5. 10-1

The other horses are eliminated immediately. So we will eliminate #6 at 12/1 and #7 at 15/1.

2. 3 Horses With The Highest of 2 Speed Ratings

Using only the horses remaining, find the highest speed rating of the last 2 races on each remaining horse in the race. Keep in the 3 horses with the best or highest speed ratings.

This is what the Speed Ratings look like using Premium Past Performances from www.brisnet.com

An Example using the previous race layout.:

The 3 horses with the best or Highest Speed Rating are Horse #1 with a 92, Horse #4 with a 89 and Horse #9 with a 87.

The 3 horses with the Highest 2 speed ratings are the only horses in the race that we will consider. We continue handicapping only these 3 horses. All of the remaining horses are eliminated from the race. We will eliminate #2, #3, #5, and #8.

In the event of a tie for the third highest speed rated horse, we will put in the additional horse with the same speed rating as the 3rd highest speed rated horse selected. Handicap this horse as well. This is very rare.  In fact only about 3% of the races studied.

Example.

Highest Speed Rating in the Race is 92. The second highest speed rating is 89.  The third highest speed rating is 87. Suppose there was another 87 speed rating in the race. If so we will also include that horse.

Eliminate the other horses that do not qualify.

These are our Contenders. With these Contenders let's see if the Favorite is expected to win. Handicap the Favorite very quickly using the following steps to see if the Favorite is your play.

1. Favorite Morning Line Odds

The horse that we will be using as the Favorite is the lowest Morning Line Odds. Horse must be the lowest listed Morning Line Odds and less than 3/1 Morning Line Odds. If the favorite is 3/1 Morning Line Odds or higher this horse will not be considered a favorite. So we are only looking for one horse that is the lowest Morning Line Odds under 3/1. This horse will be considered as the Favorite in our Handicapping.

Example of the Morning Line in a Race

1. 6-1

2. 3-1

3. 8-1

4. 2-1

5. 10-1

6. 12-1

7. 15-1

8. 4-1

9. 5-1

Using this example Morning Line, #4 at 2-1 is the lowest Morning Line Odds of the race. This is the horse we will handicap to see if he will become our play.

The Favorite Must also be One of Your 3 Top Speed Contenders. If the Favorite is not one of your Contenders eliminate the following Steps and the Favorite horse and go right to "How To Handicap Contenders That are Not the Favorite" to see if there is a Non-favorite that will be our selection.

The Favorite must qualify with the following factors to become the Favorite Play. As soon the favorite does not qualify with one of the factors then the favorite will be eliminated from the race.

2. Jockeys

3. Dates

4. Finish Position in Last Race

5. First Call Position in the Last Race Out

6. Big Win Last Out

SHORTCUT TO SELECTING YOUR HORSE

If the favorite is still remaining in the race and has the highest speed rating of the two speed ratings of your Contenders then this horse will automatically be your play. No reason to go any further. We do not have to handicap the other Contenders.

Example

Here are the three highest speed rated horses of our Contenders as explained in How To Find Your Main Contenders. Listed below are the same 3 horses as before .

1. 92

4. 89

9. 87

In this example, Horse #1 which is the highest speed rated horse is also our Favorite selection at 2/1 of the race. He becomes our play.

Also if the Favorite is one of your Speed Contenders but not the Highest Speed Rate, we will keep him in until we make our final decision. But we will not use the favorite horse in the following steps.

Now we will find our Non-Favorite Selection, using only our Contenders.  In most cases we will only have 2 contenders left to handicap.

HOW TO HANDICAP CONTENDERS

THAT ARE NOT THE FAVORITE

We have already determined our Contenders. These are the only horses we will handicap. If one of our contenders does not qualify with one of these steps then this horse is eliminated.

1. Morning Line Odds

The Contender must have a Morning Line Odds of more than 5-2. In other words must be at least 3-1 odds.

2.  Finish In Last Race

With the remaining horses the horse must finish in a certain position in the last race out depending on today's type of race.

Claiming Races 10000 or Under

This is only to be applied to Optional Claiming, Starter Allowance, Starter Handicap or Claming Races of 10000 or less.

Eliminate any horse that in his last race did not finish at least 4th in the last race.

Claiming Races 12500 or Higher

This is only to be applied to Optional Claiming, Starter Allowance, Starter Handicap or Claming Races 12500 or higher.

Eliminate any horse that in his last race did not finish at least 5th in the last race.

Handicap, Stakes or Graded Stakes

Eliminate any horse that in his last race did not finish at least 5th in the last race.

Continue to the next step with remaining horses.

3. Lengths Behind in the Finish in the Last Race Out

Keep any Horse in that is less than 15 Lengths behind at the finish of the race. So 15 lengths behind at the finish is NOT OK.

Continue your Handicapping with the Remaining Horses

List this number beside each remaining horse.  The horse must qualify with the lowest odds number of the 2 races depending on today's type of race.

Claiming Races 16000 or Under

This is only to be applied to Optional Claiming, Starter Allowance, Starter Handicap or Claming Races of 16000 or less.

The lowest odds number of the 2  must be less than 10.00. Do not accept 10.00.

Claiming Races 18000 or Higher

This is only to be applied to Optional Claiming, Starter Allowance, Starter Handicap or Claming Races 18000 or higher.

The lowest odds number of the 2  must be less than 3.6. So 3.5 odds is in.

Handicap, Stakes or Graded Stakes

The lowest odds of the 2 number must be less than 6.0. So 6.0 odds is OUT.

All horses that do not qualify with lowest odds are eliminated. Continue on with remaining horses.

5. Dates

The horses remaining must have had a race in the last 90 days or 3 months..

Example:

Today's Race is March 11, 2023. The horse's last race was December 28, 2022.. This horse raced 73 days ago. This is acceptable.

6. First Call Position in the Last Race Out

Any Horse that is more than 8th in the first call of the last race is eliminated. So 9th position in the first call is out.

Continue your Handicapping with the Remaining Horses. Any horse that has been eliminated will NOT be considered.

7. Jockey - Current Meet

The Jockey of the horse must have won more than 4.5 % of their races at the current meet or if the jockey has 0 % wins (not won a race at the meet)  then they must have had only 22 jockey starts at the current meet.  So 4.5 % wins is NOT OK.

8. Big Win Last Out

A Big Win is a Win by more than 7 Lengths. Eliminate any Non-Favorite that won their last race by more than 7 lengths and is not returning to the races within 45 days. Continue your Handicapping with the Remaining Horses

FINDING OUR PLAY

With our remaining horses we will separate to find our Win Play Selection using the Highest Speed Rating of the 2 that we used to find our Contenders. Our Win Play is the Highest Speed Rating of the Contenders. If the Favorite was not the top Speed Rated horse but was one of our original contenders, we will now put this horse back in.

And if the Favorite has the highest speed rate of our remaining horses then the Favorite is our Win Play. Otherwise the Favorite is eliminated.

Example:

We have just one horse remaining plus the Favorite is still in as a Contender.  Look at their speed rating number.

1. 89 - Favorite

5. 91 - Non-Favorite

The #5 the Non- Favorite has the Highest of the 2 Speed Ratings and would be our Win Play.

On the other hand if the highest speed rated horse of the 2 was the Favorite then the Favorite would be our Win Play.

The method is not very difficult. You will enjoy this method.

The "Favorite or Longshot?" Method"  will give you many plays each race day.

Race Examples have been added along with the Past Performances so that you can follow along with the handicapping. They are explained in a step by step manner and are all taken from one race day so that you can understand completely how to handicap the races.

As always any questions please email at phahorseracing@gmail.com

Thank You Very Much.

Professional Handicappers