MIRACLE WEAPON
By "Sprint" and Cathy Rogers
When a horse is introduced to speed, it becomes on edge. It becomes very nervous, fractious and unruly. It bites and kicks and will hurt itself or others if it doesn't get back to the track. A horse is usually introduced to speed through a workout. And this is where most all of our analyzing is going to come from.
You are going to use a WORKOUT EVALUATION CHART and a TRACK ADJUSTMENT CHART (included separately on our menu) for racetracks and training centers throughout the United States. To come up with the Track Adjustment chart we evaluated each track on our chart and found the speed of the workout track. In other words, each track or workout center are not the same. Some tracks are slower than others.
You will see on the track adjustment chart some names duplicated for the same track such as Belmont and Belmont training track. These are 2 separate workout areas, thus 2 separate Track Adjustment Numbers. Please be sure that you are using the proper track adjustment chart for the proper workout area.
The simplicity in rating a horse is what makes this approach to picking potential winners so fascinating. You should be able to handicap a race in minutes and with an accuracy that will amaze you.
WORKOUT
EVALUATIONS
HOW TO USE WORKOUT EVALUATIONS
There is a
chart called WORKOUT
EVALUATION CHART. You
will notice that the chart consists of 6 columns. Reading from left to right,
the first column represents a Workout Evaluation number from 115 to 70. The
higher the number the better the evaluation. Each additional column represents a
distance of a workout (and occasionally a race) and you will notice
the distances range from 3 Furlongs to 1 Mile. The use of
the Workout Evaluation Chart is extremely simple and fast. And this is
accomplished by looking at the last workout of every horse that is remaining in
the race. Once we look at a workout, we turn to the Workout Evaluation Chart.
You also have a chart called Track Adjustment Chart for Race
Tracks listed on our menu.. This lists
many racetracks and training centers around the country. Beside each track name
is a number that is to be added to the workout rating you find. This number
represents the speed of each workout area. If the number is a + (plus) you add
the number to the workout evaluation number. A – (minus) you subtract the
number from the workout evaluation number. Example: If
the workout listed was at Santa Anita, using the Track Adjustment Chart under SA
(the abbreviation for Santa Anita you will notice a +12. That means you will add
12 to the workout evaluation number you find for the workout. If the workout listed was at Hollywood, using the Track Adjustment Chart under
HOL
(the abbreviation for Hollywood) you will notice a +13. That means you will
add
13 from the workout evaluation number you find for the workout. We do not care what track you are handicapping, we are only concerned at what track
or training center the workout took place at. Look to the
column on the chart for the actual distance of the workout that you are
evaluating. Again the distances are marked on the chart to the right of the Workout Evaluation
Number, They are marked 3F for 3 furlongs, 4F for 4
furlongs, 5F for 5 furlongs, 6F for 6 furlongs, 7F for 7 furlongs
and 1 M for 1 mile. To
find the final Workout Evaluation Number, look under the appropriate distance
column until you find the same time that is listed for the workout. Follow that
number across the far left hand column under WEN and that number will be the
Workout Evaluation Number for the horse in Question. Before
continuing, let's assume that the horse's most recent workout is listed as
follows:
NOV 5 SA 4f fst 49.1 H To rate this
workout you would turn to your Santa Anita Abbreviations (SA) on your Track
Adjustment Chart. There you would find beside SA +12. Look to the column marked
4f which represents the distance of
the workout. Look down that column until you find the time of 47.1 which
represents the time of the horse’s most recent workout in our example. Now look to the far left hand column opposite the 49.1 and you will find the number
87.
Then add the +12 For SA Track Adjustment to the 87 = 99. This number is
the Workout Evaluation Number for a horse who turned in a workout of 4F at Santa
Anita in 49.1. Here is
another example: Let’s say the workout was run at Fairplex.. The time of the
workout is in 47.1. Now go to your Track Adjustment Chart and look up the Fairplex abbreviation which is FPX.
The workout was 4 F in 47.1. You will notice that the
Workout Evaluation number is 97 plus the FPX adjustment from the Track
Adjustment Chart is +9. Therefore, 97 + 9 = 106 at Fairplex.
SPECIAL ADJUSTMENTS
Each workout distance
on the Workout Evaluation chart is read the same way. But now comes the
interesting factor. When looking at a workout, you are only concerned with those
that took place on the dirt and you must make special note of how the dirt was
labeled. For Example - If the track is labeled gd (Good), sl (Slow), or hy
(Heavy), we make a special adjustment to our Miracle Weapon Workout
Evaluation Number as follows. When a workout
track is listed gd (Good) we increase our Workout Evaluation Number by 10 and
when it is listed as sl (slow) or hy (heavy), we increase the Workout Evaluation
Number by 20. You make no adjustments when the workout is listed as my (muddy). EXAMPLE:
If our 4 F workout of 49.1 at SA was on a qd (Good} track, the workout
evaluation number would have been 109 rather than 99. (99 + 10}. And if
our FPX rating of 47.1 was on a hy (Heavy) track the rating would be 126. (106 +
20). These
adjustments are not the only adjustments that we make to our Miracle Weapon
number. You will also have to note how the workout was run. In other words was
it run from the GATE or BREEZING. Therefore, we are concerned whether the
workout was BREEZING (b) or run from the GATE (g). And at times BREEZING from
the GATE. (bg). If a
horse works either breezing or from the gate, the workout evaluation number is
increased by 10 points. If the workout was breezing from the gate (bg), the adjustment would be 10 for each or
an increase of the workout evaluation number by 20. THERE IS NO ADJUSTMENT
FOR HANDILY (h). These
adjustments can and do make drastic changes in the ratings of our horses. For
example, if a horse ran 4 F in 49.1 at Santa Anita on a heavy track, breezing
from the gate (SA 4F hy 49.1 bg), the number would be increased from 99 to 139
(99 + 20 (heavy) + 10 (breezing) + 10 (gate) = 139). It is
imperative that you use the correct distance column and the correct Track
Adjustment for the track or training center that the workout came from (not
necessarily the track that they are running at today). And that you add each and
every adjustment that has just been discussed. These ratings have been adjusted
by track variants and when readjusted by the special adjustments, they come up
with a workout in a time that the public cannot and will not ever conceive. Let's
evaluate a 4 F workout in a time of 47.1 on a Good track. By adding 10
(10 fifths of a second or 2 seconds), we are saying that the workout is now the
equivalence of time of 45.1. If I added 10 more for breezing, it’s an
outstanding workout at 43.1. I hope you are getting the idea. The higher the
workout evaluation number, the stronger the horse. Rating
a workout is easy. You read each workout the same no matter where they take
place. But that's only the first phase of this evaluation plan. What we want to
do now is to find when this workout took place. I am going to
introduce you to a new word called ACTIVITY. And what you want to find
out is what was the horse's last type of activity, and how long ago
did it take place. One of the reasons we have to be concerned is because the
workout in Question could have taken place 2 months ago and the last activity on
the horse could have been a race that followed a race that followed a race. So
to make life easy here's what I recommend. On each
horse in the race evaluate their last workout. And as you are evaluating them,
check, to see if the workout in question took place before or after the horse's
last race. DO NOT CALCULATE THE WORKOUT IF IT WAS NOT THE HORSE'S LAST
ACTIVITY. In other words the horse has had a race since it's last workout.
If the
workout was the horse's last activity, calculate the workout evaluation number
as explained above and mark it down by the workout. However, if the last
activity was a race, next to the workout evaluation number that you have
written, put an X as a code to remind you that this activity (the workout) took
place before the horse's last race or races. The X serves as a reminder that the
workout was not the last activity on the horse. HOW TO
READ THE WORKOUT EVALUATION CHART
TRACK
ADJUSTMENT CHARTS
HOW
TO USE WORKOUT EVALUATION NUMBERS
Let's now analyze a horse who has had a race since it's last workout. The first thing to check is to see how many days before the last race the workout (his last activity) took place. If the last activity was a race but his last workout took place less than 12 days ago, the workout is to be used as a means of evaluating the horse. You rate the workout the same as explained above.
If though the race is his last activity and the last workout is more than 12 days from today then it will be necessary to rate the horse from it's last race.
This is done by taking the final time of the race (the winners time) and converting it to a Workout Evaluation Number using the same chart as you did for the workouts. If the horse did not win the race, you must subtract the lengths behind the winner.
For a 6 furlong race use the 6 furlong column, for 7 furlongs use the 7 furlong column and for a mile race use the mile column. If the distance of the race is 1 1/16 use the 1 M column on the Workout Evaluation Chart and subtract 7 full seconds (35 points) from the final rating found on the Workout Evaluation Chart for the track. If the distance of the race is 1 1/8 miles, use the 1 Mile time on your workout evaluation chart and the 1 mile time (stretch time) that is now printed in the form for the stretch call and subtract the lengths the horse was behind at the this point of call. If the distance of the race is 1 M 70 use the 1 M column on the Workout Evaluation Chart and subtract 2.1 seconds seconds (11 points) from the final rating found on the Workout Evaluation Chart for the track.
If the distance of the race is 6 1/2 F use the 6 F column time that is printed in Racing Form for the horse along with the 6 furlong in your workout evaluation chart and subtract the lengths the horse was behind at this point of call. You also will add the Track Adjustment Rating for the track from your Track Adjustment Chart. And also you will add any special adjustment number if the track was listed as good, heavy or slow.
Once you have established your rating for the race no matter what the distance, you are to subtract 2 full seconds or 10 points from the Workout Evaluation Number. This becomes the final rating for the horse's last race.
Example: The horse's last race was a 6 furlong race at Santa Anita and was run in 112.3 on a good track and he finished 6 lengths behind the winner. The Workout Evaluation Number for the race is 97. Your horse finished 6 lengths behind the winner. Now subtract the 6 lengths from the 97. This gives you 91. Also add +12 to this number for the Track Adjustment for Santa Anita = 103. Since the race was run on a good track (gd), you would now add an additional 10 (taken from your special adjustments) to your evaluation number to give you 113 (103+10). Because you are evaluating a race, subtract 2 full seconds or 10 points which will give you an final Evaluation Number of 103.
Example: The horses' s last race was a 1 1/16 mile race at Santa Anita and was run in 144.2 and he finished 2 lengths behind the winner. Subtract 7 seconds from the final time of 144.2. (144.2-7 = 137.2)
Look up this workout evaluation number under the 1 mile column on your Workout Evaluation Chart which is 113. Now subtract the 2 lengths that the horse was behind at the end of the race from the 113. This gives you 111. Also add +12 to this number for the Track Adjustment for Santa Anita = 123. The race was run on a fast track so we do not have a special adjustment to add. Because you are evaluating a race, subtract 2 full seconds or 10 points which will give you a final Evaluation Number of 113. (113 - 2 +12 - 10)
But I am going to emphasize, in fact. I'm saying it loud and clear, do not rate every horse off their last race. Very few winners are coming off of a race. Most are coming off of a workout. The workout is what we want to use to evaluate a horse whenever possible.
If the horse had a workout since his last race, DO NOT RATE THE RACE ONLY THE WORKOUT.
And we never play a horse that has been evaluated by a race by itself. If the rating from a race is better than your top workout horse or even if it is tied, it is to be considered as a 2-horse win play with your top Workout Evaluation Number.
Now that we have covered a horse who had a race as it's last activity, let's move on and analyze anyone who had a workout as the last activity,
Check to see how many days the last activity -the workout took place to today's race. If the workout - the last activity was more than 14 days away from today's race, eliminate the horse from the race. If not, remember to rate the horse from it’s most recent workout.
SPECIAL NOTE: When handicapping a Maiden Special Weight race. You may look at the last 2 workouts on a horse, if both workouts took place since his last race and both are within 14 days from today's date. To use the last two workouts on a horse, the horse must be a First Time Starter or a lightly raced Maiden Special Weight horse (only 2 races in their past performances). Rate both workouts. If the 2nd workout back is higher than the last, use that workout only if it is 100 or more. Otherwise use only the last workout.
When you are going to handicap a race and before you rate each horse for their workout or race their are just a few reasons to ELIMINATE a horse from the race before you rate it.
1. Eliminate any horse more than 120 days from today's race.
2. Eliminate any horse that finished last in the last race out unless horse had a bad break.
3. Eliminate any horse that finished more than 12 3/4 lengths out in their last race unless the distance or class was not comparable to today's race. Or if the horse had trouble in the last race. Try not to be to lenient though.
4. Eliminate any horse that cannot cope with the distance or class of today's race.
5. Eliminate any horse that is in a claiming race and is dropping 4 class levels from his last race to his race today unless the horse was moved up to that class level.
6. Eliminate any horse that did not beat half the field unless the horse is running at the same class level or dropping in class today.
Must finish at least:
4th in a field of 7 5th in a field of 8 or 9 6th in a field of 10 of more
After you have eliminated the horses, rate the rest of the horses in the race as described above. If their last activity was a workout and it was less than 15 days ago, rate the workout using the explanation previously explained.
If the last activity is a race and the workout was not less than 13 days from today race, the horse's race is rated using LAST ACTIVITY - A RACE.
Once you have completed rating the whole race, find the horse that is the top rated workout evaluation number from it's workout being the last activity. Play the top workout by itself or if a horse had a race that is the last activity and this race number is tied or better than the workout rating play 2 horses to win.
You may also wish to play 2 horses to win if your workout evaluation numbers taken from workouts are tied or very close.
The higher the number in a workout the better the rating. A 90 or more is considered a KEY PLAY.
When you have your key horse you now scan the race to see if there is any outstanding horse that would possibly beat this horse. This other horse only comes from one that had a race for it's last activity.
Try to always get your final rating where the workout was IT'S last activity AND DON'T BE AFRAID TO PASS RACES.
As far as your application of the previous rules, remember that you are dealing with horseracing. Remember, Murphy's Law.
Also, be careful of bad weather in certain racetracks areas. Weather such as rain, snow or cold that could keep horses from working out as they normally would. If the 14 day rule is not working effectively change it. As well as, making any other minor changes to suit your track.
But above all be sure to use a sound Money Management Procedure.
I am sure you will enjoy using our MIRACLE WEAPON. If you have any questions please email us at winners@phahorseracing.com
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