APPLICATION OF THE ONE STEP

APPLICATION OF THE ONE STEP

Now that we have learned how to Class a Race and a Horse let's Apply the One Step.

We will classify each horse either with a zero (0), a plus (+) or minus (-) Class Rating. This is based on how a horse's class rating compares to that of the class rating of today's race. It only sounds confusing. But it is as easy as 1-2-3. If a race is classified as an 8 class and a horse has a class rating of 8, then this horse's class is par with today's race which would give this horse a 0 (zero). If the conditions of the race were the same (8) and the class rating of the horse was a 9 class rating then this horse's class would be a -1 (minus 1) one less than par. (Remember when figuring class- the lower the number, the better the class). If the conditions of the race were the same (8) and the class rating of the horse was a 7 class rating then this horse would be one better than par or +1 (plus 1).

Basically what we are going to do is compare the class number of the conditions of the race that you are handicapping today with the final class number of each horse running in the race as explained below. And the best class will be our selection.

After you read the explanation of how to use the One Step - the Epitome of Thoroughbred Handicapping, we have included 3 full race examples including the Past Performances so that you can follow along with the explanation of how we come up with the winners. We do not sway with these simple rules to find the winner. It is 1-2-3. You will have the exact same horses using the One Step. Please read the examples and practice so that you will be able to quickly handicap the races on your own. Of course, at any time if you have any questions please email us at winners@phahorseracing.com

How To Find The Class of The Horse

1. Using the conditions of the race you are handicapping, mark down the class rating of the race using the Professional Handicappers Association's Class Ratings and following the instructions from "Let's Rate a Race".

2. Look at the horse's last race out. Look to see if there is an excuse in that race (See Excuses listed below). If there is just one excuse in the last race out then you have permission to look to the second race back. If in this second race back there is also one of the listed excuses then you would continue back to the third race. You will continue to look at each race back as long as their is an excuse in it. If there is no listed excuse in the race you are looking at then you stop on that race. Then you will rate each race that was excused and the race that you stop on using the method explained under "How to Determine Class of a Horse".

If you found no listed excuse in the last race out you would stop there and not look any further on this horse and use the class rating only for that race. Each horse will be different. This method of excusing races will determine which race you will take to find his correct class. In some very rare instances, you might find there is an excuse in each race on a horse and therefore have to rate each race in the Past Performances.

Here is a list of the excuses. You only need 1 listed Excuse to be able to look at the next race back. Once you go look at each horse using the method explained above the best class horse is your win play. That's it.

EXCUSES

1) Win - If a horse wins a race or is within a nose, neck or head of the winner excuse the race and look further back.

2) Off track - anything listed other than fast. Do not use Wet Fast - WF

Example: MY (muddy), SLY (sloppy), GD (good)

3) Distance - Any distance that is 1 furlong shorter or longer than today's distance unless the distance you are concerned with is one which the horse has performed within 3 lengths of the winner in one of his last 6 races.

Example: Today's race is 6 furlongs. The race we are looking at the horse ran 1 mile. 1 mile is more than 1 furlong longer than 6 furlongs. You would excuse this 1 mile race as long as the horse in one of his last 6 races out has not run 1 mile before and finished 3 lengths or less from the winner. And if this horse never ran 1 mile before you would excuse the race.

4) Dropping Class - Any class level higher than today's class unless the class level in the race you are looking at the horse has performed a good race at that same class level or higher in one of his last 5 races.

Good Race: If a horse has run a Good Race he must have finished either first, second or third. And if more than third must be 2 lengths or less in a sprint race (under 1 mile) or 3 lengths or less in a route race (1mile or greater).

Example of Dropping Class Excuse: Today's race is a 9 class rating (found as explained in "Let's Rate a Race"). The race we are looking at in the past performances the horse is an 8 class (found as explained in "Let's Rate the Race of a Horse"). This race would be excused because an 8 class is better than a 9 class (remember the lower the number the better the class). But if somewhere in the last 5 races the horse ran the same class race (8) as we are trying to excuse or even a better class race and in either situation ran a Good Race (as explained above), then this 8 class race that we are trying to excuse would not be excused.

SPECIAL NOTE: However, if the only excuse in the race that the horse qualifies for is this excuse Dropping Class, then do not give the horse the benefit of a higher class level if in his recent races prior to his last race he could not win for a lesser class. In other words, if the horse cannot win for a cheaper class (without an excuse) we do not want to credit him with a better class if he has not earned it.

5) Off Rest - Any horse whose last race was more than 25 days from his previous race (not including today's race).

Example: Today's race is 09/12/11. The horse's last race was on 08/25/2011. The second race back was 07/15/2011. This means the 07/15/2011 race was 25 days or more between races (Would be 41 days between the 2 races). Therefore 08/25/2011 race would be excused.

6) Trouble - Any running problem or equipment problem that could have impaired the horse's running ability of his race.

Excuses such as checked, blocked, forced wide, steadied, bumped off stride, bumped hard, clipped heels, impeded, bad break or slow start (unless horse has a history of bad breaks or poor starts), in tight, stumbled, reared, close quarters, loose bandages, lost whip, saddle slipped, hit rail, broke through gate, etc. Note: Eased or not finishing a race is not trouble.

These problems are listed at the far right of the Past Performance Line.

3. Remember to review each race back for these excuses starting with the last race. The horse needs only one of these excuses to be given permission to look to the next race back. When a race does not have an excuse in the race you must stop. DO NOT GO TO ANOTHER RACE BACK.

Now after you have checked for excuses, convert the class of each race that you were given permission to look at as explained in "Let's Rate the Race of a Horse". Write down the final class rating that you found on each race that you looked at.

Take the best class rating obtained on each horse (the lower the number, the better the class) and compare it to the class of today's race and plus or minus the rating as was previously explained.

Example: If today's race is a 12 class rating and the horse is excused to the second race back you will look at the last 2 races and find the class rating on those 2 races only. If the second race back is a 12 class and his first race back is 13 class, this horse would be given the 12 class since this is the lowest number. His final One Step Rating would be a 0 (zero).

How to Find the One Step Rating

12 is the class of today's race. You subtract the horse's final class rating from the class rating of today's race. 12 is the horse's final best class rating. 12 - 12 = 0 (zero) One Step Rating. This horse is par or equal to today's class.

HOW TO FIND YOUR PLAY

The horse to play is your best rated One Step horse.

I've listed some additional Eliminating Factors that my be applied to the One Step either before or after you have evaluated the class of your horses. These additional eliminating factors are not part of the One Step, but will help speed up your work while eliminating many additional non-contenders.

REASONS TO ELIMINATE HORSES FROM RACE

We have included a few elimination factors that will improve the One Step procedure. The above One Step procedure may be used by itself without these elimination factors, but we found that it can strengthen your play and definitely speed up your work. If the horse has one of these eliminating factors in the last race out discard the horse from the race. Do not use the Eliminating factors on any other race but the last race on a horse.

1. Eliminate any horse that finished last in his last race unless he was entered in a Graded Stakes race and did not belong there. Eased or not finishing race would be eliminated.

2. Eliminate any horse that has not won a race in one of his last 10 races.

3. Eliminate any horse that has not had a race in 45 days or more unless the race today is a Graded Stakes race. In the first 2 weeks of a meet move the dates to 50 days.

4. Eliminate any horse that finished 18 lengths or more in the last race. Or eliminate the horse if the last 2 races total 30 lengths or more unless in the last race the horse is within 2 lengths of the winner.

Sometimes you will have a tie. You have a choice. Either pass the race or you can separate by speed or you can play 2 horses to win.

There it is. Just as was mentioned earlier, it's as easy as 1-2-3. Please practice the above procedure on paper before attempting to use it at the track. We have included 3 races for you to practice with. They have the step by step complete explanation of how you handicap the race and come up with the horse to play. Please review these so that you become familiar with how to excuse races.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT RACES TO PASS

After finding your horse to play, we suggest that you review these reasons to pass the race before you make a wager.

1. Pass any race if your top horse just beat another horse by a short margin (within 2 lengths) unless your top horse had an excuse in his last race which suggests that the horse could improve this race.

2. Pass any race if you have remaining more than 3 contenders of equal class.

3. Pass maiden races.

VISUAL AIDS

Let's take an example of 3 horses left in the race.

Horse #1 has a 0 (zero) One Step class.

Horse #2 has a 0 One Step class.

Horse #3 has a +1 (plus one) One Step class.

Horse #3 is your play regardless of speed ratings.

Let's take another example of 2 horses left in the race.

Horse #1 has a 0 One Step class.

Horse #2 has a 0 One Step class.

Since both horses are tied in class we will separate by our speed ratings. Horse #1 has a 83 speed rating. Horse #2 has a 84 speed rating. Horse #2 is your play even if he has just one speed rating better.

SPECIAL NOTE: Always play your top class horse and in the event of a tie separate by speed or Pace Ratings (Taken from our course 4 P's.).

Please look at the 4 Complete Race Examples that we have included. I am sure you will find them very easy to follow.

If you have any questions on the One Step please be sure to email at winners@phahorseracing.com