PROFILE OF A WINNING HORSE
By Professional Handicappers Association
Winning horses have these factors 90 - 95 percent of the time. They are very, very powerful. You will be able to look at a race and quite quickly identify a winning horse. The factors are very simple. You will have no problem applying these factors to a race. They are very self-explanatory and not confusing.
We have 2 types of Profiles. One is the Profile of a Winning Horse for All Types of Races Except for Maiden Races. And the other is the Profile of a Winning Horse for All Types of Maiden Races. You will find that section later.
Just apply these factors to the horses in a race and you will come up with winning horses. Or apply these factors to a horse that you like in a race. Find out if the horse has a wining profile. The factors are very easy to apply. As soon as the horse does not have one of the winning factors eliminate the horse from the race.
After the explanation of all the Winning Factors we have included some actual races that we handicap for you applying these winning factors. You will be able to follow along and see how we simply come up with the winners. Well here we go!
Profile of a Winning Horse for all Types of Races
Except Maiden Races.
1. Morning Line Odds
The morning line odds of the horse in the race today must be less than 12 to 1. To find the Morning Line odds of a horse either look in the program of the race or you can get the information on line at many web sites including the racing form www.drf.com. Look under Entries.
2. Age
This is a very simple factor. Most winning horses are 6 years of age or younger. The age of the horse is listed just to the right of the horse's name.
3. Win This Year
The horse must have won a race this year (found in the record box) or if the horse has not won a race this year must have 5 races or less this year. If has not won last year as well eliminate.
Here is an example of how to find the number of wins the horse had this year in a Past Performance Line. The record box is found at the top right section beside the weight of the horse and under the Life Column.
2009 6 1 2 0
2008 10 2 4 1
In the example we are using above the horse had 6 races this year with 1 win. This is acceptable
4. Jockey - Current Meet
The horse must have a jockey on board today that has won 6 % or more of his mounts at the current meet, or if the jockey has won less than 6 % the jockey must have had less than 14 starts at the current meet.
Here is an example of how to find the per cent of wins the jockey has had at the current meeting in a Past Performance Line. Under the horse's name the jockey's name is listed. Right beside the name is the number of mounts, wins, places, shows and win percent that the jockey has had in the current meeting.
Jockey's Name (50 4 6 5 .08)
In the example above the jockey has had 50 mounts with 4 wins which is an 8 % win average of their mounts this current meeting. This would be acceptable.
An example of an unacceptable jockey is
Jockey's Name (49 2 6 5 .04)
The jockey has won only 4 % of their mounts this current meeting. The jockey must have won 6 % of their mounts. This would not be acceptable and the horse would be eliminated.
5. Trainer - Current Meet
The Trainer of the horse must have won 9 % or more of their races at the current meet or the if the trainer has not won 9 % then they must have less than 13 starts at the current meet.
Here is an example of how to find the per cent of wins the trainer has had at the current meet. In the top middle section of the PP's lists the age, bloodline of the horse, breeder's name and under that the trainer's name. Right beside the trainer's name is the number of starts, wins, places, shows and win percent that the trainer has had in the current meet.
Tr. Trainer's Name (87 10 16 7 .11)
In the example above the trainer has had 87 starts this meet with 10 wins which is a 11 % win average this current meet. This would be acceptable.
An example of an unacceptable trainer is
Tr. Trainer's Name (55 4 6 5 .07)
The trainer has won only 7 % of their starts this current meeting. The trainer must have won 9 % to remain the race. This would not be acceptable and the horse would be eliminated.
6. Finish Position of Last 2 Races
A horse must finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th in one of the last 2 races. If the horse's best finish is 4th, the horse must also be less than 10 lengths in that race. If the horse did not finish 1st,2nd,3rd or 4th then the horse must be 2 lengths or less at the end of one of the last 2 races.
Here is an example of how to find the finish position in a Past Performance Line:
1st Call 2nd Call Stretch Finish
Last Race 42 1/2 66 78 66
2nd Race 35 1/2 34 24 23
In the example above, the last race out the horse finished 6th. In the second race back the horse finished 2nd. This is an acceptable finish.
7. Time Away From the Races
The horse must have raced within 70 days of today's race. The only exception to this factor is in the beginning of a meet. You can usually be more lenient up to 120 days in the first 2 to 3 weeks of a meet.
The date and running line of the horse's last race is listed under the name of the Jockey riding today. Simply subtract the horse's last race date from the date of today's race to determine the number of days since the horse's last race.
Example: Today's date is Feb. 16, 2009. Last race out the horse ran Jan. 12, 2009. This means the horse's last race was 35 days ago. This would be acceptable.
TIP: To help speed up your handicapping using this factor, calculate what date 70 days from today's date would be. Then mark the date down. For all of the races you handicap just check the date versus the horse's last race out. If the race is since the date you wrote down then the horse is acceptable. This will speed up this factor for you.
Example of How to Calculate: Today's races are Feb.16, 2009. So 70 days earlier would be as follows - 16 days in February, 31 days in January. That's a total of 47. Then we need 23 days more to equal 70. Which means that in December, 23 more days would be Dec. 8 (Dec. 31-23 = Dec. 8). So for all the races you handicap on Feb.16 if the horse's last race was before Dec. 8, 2008 the horse would be eliminated.
8. Actual Final Odds of Last Race
In the last race out the horse must have gone off at odds of 20 to 1 or less. These are the exact odds of the horse.
Here is an example of how to find the final odds of the last race in a Past Performance Line:
1st Call 2nd Call Stretch Finish Jockey Weight Odds
Last Race 42 1/2 66 78 66 Name 120 4.55
In the example above, the last race out the horse's final odds were 4.55 to 1. This means that he was certainly under 20 to 1. So this is acceptable.
9. Actual Final Odds of Last 2 Races
The horse must also have gone off at 8 to 1 or less final odds in one of the last 2 races.
Here is an example of how to find the lowest odds of the last 2 races in a Past Performance Line:
1st Call 2nd Call Stretch Finish Jockey Weight Odds
Last Race 56 66 78 66 Name 120 9.35
2nd Race 35 1/2 34 24 23 Name 122 6.45
In the example above, the last race out the horse's final odds were 9.35 to 1. The Second Race back the final odds were 6.45 to 1. This means that in one of the last 2 races the horse's final odds were 8.0 to 1 or less. You will notice that we needed to look at the second race back (6.45 odds to 1) to find the lowest odds of the horse's last 2 races. So this is acceptable.
Exception: The only exception to this factor is if the horse is dropping 4 class levels or more from the last race to today, then the horse must have gone off at 9 to 1 or less in one of the last 2 races. If you are confused on identifying if a horse is dropping 4 class levels or more from the last race to today's race, we have included a section on how to find the class of a race later on (Look for 13.Class)
10. Lengths Behind at the Finish of the Last Race Out
At the finish of the last race run, the horse must be 15 lengths or less.
Here is an example of how to find what the lengths behind are at the finish of the last race in a Past Performance Line:
1st Call 2nd Call Stretch Finish
Last Race 42 1/2 66 47 610
In the last race, the horse was 10 lengths behind at the finish of the last race. The horse needed to be 15 lengths or less at the finish. This horse is acceptable.
11. Lengths Behind at the 2nd Call of the Last 2 Races
At the second call of one of the last 2 races run, the horse must be 4 1/2 lengths or less.
Here is an example of how to find what the lengths behind are at the 2nd call of the last 2 races in a Past Performance Line:
1st Call 2nd Call Stretch Finish
Last Race 42 1/2 66 78 66
2nd Race 35 1/2 34 23 22
In the last race, the horse was 6 lengths behind at the 2nd call of the last race. But in the 2nd race back, the horse was only 4 lengths behind at the second call of the race. The horse was 4 1/2 lengths or less at the 2nd call in one of the last 2 races. This horse is acceptable.
12. Recent Activity
This factor has 2 parts to it. A horse must be coming back to the races in 21 days or less. And if the horse has not raced in 21 days then the horse must have had a workout in the last 18 days.
The date and running line of the horse's last race is listed under the name of the Jockey riding today. Simply subtract the horse's last race date from the date of today's race to determine the number of days since the horse's last race.
Example: Today's date is Feb. 16, 2009. Last race out the horse ran on Jan. 12, 2009. This means the horse's last race was 35 days ago.
Since the horse's last race was 21 days or more from today's race date, to remain in the race the horse must have had a workout in the last 18 days. Under the past performance lines of each horse is listed their most recent workouts labeled WORKS: Listing the dates of the workouts, workout track, the distance and times of the workouts. We are only concerned with the date of the most recent workout.
Example:
WORKS: Feb2 Aqu 4f fst :46.4
The horse has had a workout 14 days from today's race. Today's date is 16 - 2 (date of the workout)=14. This is acceptable.
Another Example:
Example: Today's date is Feb. 16, 2009. Last race out the horse ran on Jan.. 27, 2009. This means the horse's last race was 20 days ago. The horse does not need a workout since the last race is 21 days or less. This is acceptable.
13. Class
If today's race is a claiming race, then the horse must not be going up in class more than 2 class levels from their last race out.
If today's race is any other type of race (No Maidens) besides a Claiming race, then the horse must not be going up more than 4 class levels from the last race that they ran.
To determine whether a horse is acceptable for class, we need to know the type and class of today's race and the type and class of race that the horse was entered in the last race out. The conditions or type of today's race is listed at the top of each race.
If you are unsure how many class levels the horse is going up or whether a horse is dropping or running back at the same class level you can use our Master Class Chart. If the horse is running at a different track today or last race ran at a different track, you can use the Class Rating Adjustment Chart to help you know what the class of the racetrack is.
We have included 2 Class Charts to help you with this. The first chart is our CLASS RATING ADJUSTMENT CHART. The 2nd Chart is our MASTER CLASS RATING CHART.
The MASTER CLASS RATING CHART will rate the type of race, and the CLASS RATING ADJUSTMENT CHART rates the racetrack. Each racetrack is not the same class. So we have rated each track for you. When using the charts remember one factor and that is - the lower the number the better the class.
Quick Note: Most racetracks in the same circuit are classified as the same quality. Example: All Major New York tracks are the same - Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga. All Southern California tracks are the same - Del Mar, Hollywood Park and Santa Anita. This will make it faster for you.
HOW TO READ THE CHARTS USING THE MASTER CLASS RATING CHART AND CLASS RATING ADJUSTMENT CHART
As an example - We are handicapping a race from Santa Anita. It is a Claiming $50,000 race at Santa Anita. Look at the MASTER CLASS RATING CHART for Claiming 50,000. You will see 50,000-41,000 and beside that is 7. Then look at the CLASS RATING ADJUSTMENT CHART to class the track, Santa Anita - Abbreviation is SA. You will see a 0. Add the 7 and the 0 together. It totals 7. So the Class rating if you are handicapping a Claiming $50,000 race at Santa Anita is 7.
How To Determine how many class levels the horse is going up from the last race to today's race or whether the Horse is Dropping or Running back at the Same Class Level.
The last race out the horse raced at Louisiana Downs for a Claiming $50,000 race. We will repeat what we just did to find the class of today's race. Look at the MASTER CLASS RATING CHART for Claiming 50,000. You will see 50,000-41,000 and beside that is a 7. Then look at the CLASS RATING ADJUSTMENT CHART to class the track, Louisiana Downs. - Abbreviation is LAD. You will see a 4. Add the 7 and the 4 together. It totals 11. So the Class rating for a horse whose last race was a Claiming $50,000 race at Louisiana Downs is 11. And if the horse is racing today at Santa Anita in a Claiming $50,000 race the horse is going up 4 class levels. Today's race has a Class number of 7 (Claiming 50,000 race at Santa Anita) and the last race out the horse ran in a 11 Class race (Claiming 50,000 race at Louisiana Downs). So 7 - 11 is a -4 or going up 4 class levels. The lower the number the better the class. Today's Class is 7. Last Race Class on the horse is 11. The lower the number the better, so 7 is lower than 11.
In the example that we are using above the horse would not be acceptable. Since today is a Claiming the horse can only be going up 2 class levels from the last race. This is not acceptable and would be eliminated..
Example of an Acceptable Horse for Class
Using the same race, let's say the horse ran the same Claiming $50,000 race at Santa Anita, Hollywood Park or Del Mar. All 3 of these tracks under the Class Rating Adjustment Chart are listed as 0. Therefore if the horse's last race was for Claiming $50,000 at either of these 3 tracks the horse would be running back at the Same Class Level - 7 or the horse is not going up in class. This horse is acceptable.
How To Apply The Winning Factors in A Race
These are the Factors that make up the Profile of a Winning horse for All Types of Race Except Maiden Races. Simply apply these factors to the horses in the race. As soon as a horse does not have one of these factors the horse is eliminated from the race. You can do the factors in any order that you wish. Some factors are much quicker to apply than others. Do those first to help you pick up speed.
REMEMBER, AS SOON AS YOU FIND A HORSE DOES NOT HAVE JUST ONE OF THESE WINNING FACTORS ELIMINATE. THIS WILL SHORTEN YOUR HANDICAPPING TIME IMMENSELY.
Example: Morning Line Odds, Age of Horse, Jockey and Trainer percentages, Win this Year. These can all be done without even looking at the past performance lines.
You can also use this Profile of a Winning Horse to find exacta plays and trifecta plays. You may have 2 horses remaining. You can separate these 2 by class, speed or possibly something else or you can also play them in an exacta.
The same goes for trifectas, you may have 3 or possibly 4 horses that qualify with all of the Winning factors in a race. You could box them in a trifecta. You will see many winners.
We have included some sample races for you to see how you apply these factors.
Any questions please email winners@phahorseracing.com